Interesting🇨🇴 Primera A · — · 23:05
versus
America de Cali
Fortaleza FC
—
Pre-match analysis
63%
Under 2.5 goals
AM58
Draw27
FO15
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,57Raw implied probability63,7%Sum of the 1X2 book108,0%Operator margin removed−8,0 ptsDe-margined consensus59%Our model58.3%Measured gap−0.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 56
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 2.0 goals—50.5%59%−8.5
Over 3.0 goals—21.5%30%−8.5
Under 3.0 goals—78.5%70%+8.5
Under 2.0 goals—49.4%41%+8.4
Home over 2.0 goals—26.4%34%−7.6
Home under 2.0 goals—73.6%66%+7.6
Away over 1.0 goals—20.4%28%−7.6
Away under 1.0 goals—79.6%72%+7.6
Over 2.5 goals—36.7%44%−7.3
Under 2.5 goals—63.3%56%+7.3
Over 3.5 goals—17.3%24%−6.7
Under 3.5 goals—82.7%76%+6.7
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
