GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇭🇷 HNL · — · 16:30
versus

NK Slaven Belupo
HNK Gorica

Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš
2 – 0
Full time
53%
Under 2.5 goals
NK40
Draw29
HN31
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,67Raw implied probability37,5%Sum of the 1X2 book107,9%Operator margin removed−7,9 ptsDe-margined consensus35%Our model40.1%Measured gap+5.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—51.2%64%−12.8
Away under 1.0 goals—48.8%36%+12.8
Away over 2.0 goals—14.5%26%−11.5
Away under 2.0 goals—85.5%74%+11.5
Away over 1.5 goals—32.6%42%−9.4
Away under 1.5 goals—67.4%58%+9.4
Over 3.0 goals—31.8%41%−9.2
Under 3.0 goals—68.2%59%+9.2
Over 4.0 goals—13.2%22%−8.8
Under 4.0 goals—86.8%78%+8.8
Away draw no bet—43.2%51%−7.8
Home draw no bet—56.6%49%+7.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

hnl · 18:30
NK NK
HNKHNK
Gradski stadion Ivan Kušek Apaš
2 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓53%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
40%
Win NK
what happened
29%
Draw
31%
Win HNK
40%at opening→40%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.672.67•0%
X3.323.32•0%
22.482.48•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal88.4Away under 1.0 goals48.8%36%
51
▲+12.8pp
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting84.5Away under 2.0 goals85.5%74%
51
▲+11.5pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting78.2Away under 1.5 goals67.4%58%
51
▲+9.4pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting77.6Under 3.0 goals68.2%59%
51
▲+9.2pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting76.4Under 4.0 goals86.8%78%
51
▲+8.8pp
Home win—Home win40.1%35%
51
▲+5.1pp
Draw—Draw29.2%28%
51
▲+1.2pp
Away win—Away win30.6%37%
51
▼-6.4pp
Home or draw—Home or draw69.4%63%
51
▲+6.4pp
Home or away—Home or away70.8%72%
51
▼-1.2pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 37%model 40%▲+3pp
Xmarket 30%model 29%▼-1pp
2market 40%model 31%▼-9pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.