Interesting🇭🇷 HNL · — · 16:30
versus
HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Pre-match analysis
65%
Under 2.5 goals
HN56
Draw29
IS15
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,40Raw implied probability71,4%Sum of the 1X2 book108,8%Operator margin removed−8,8 ptsDe-margined consensus66%Our model55.7%Measured gap−10.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—19.7%45%−25.3
Under 3.0 goals—80.3%55%+25.3
Home over 2.0 goals—23.8%49%−25.2
Home under 2.0 goals—76.2%51%+25.2
Over 2.0 goals—48.5%73%−24.5
Under 2.0 goals—51.5%27%+24.5
Over 2.5 goals—34.8%57%−22.2
Under 2.5 goals—65.2%43%+22.2
Home over 1.5 goals—42.6%62%−19.4
Home under 1.5 goals—57.4%38%+19.4
Home over 2.5 goals—17.9%37%−19.1
Home under 2.5 goals—82.1%63%+19.1
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
