GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇭🇷 HNL · — · 19:00
versus

HNK Hajduk Split
NK Osijek

Stadion Poljud
Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire HNK Hajduk Split
HN65
Draw24
NK11
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,99Raw implied probability50,3%Sum of the 1X2 book107,8%Operator margin removed−7,8 ptsDe-margined consensus47%Our model65.3%Measured gap+18.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—19%54%−35
Away under 1.0 goals—81%46%+35
Away over 0.5 goals—46%68%−22
Away under 0.5 goals—54%32%+22
Away draw no bet—14.3%36%−21.7
Home draw no bet—85.6%64%+21.6
Away over 1.5 goals—12.7%34%−21.3
Away under 1.5 goals—87.3%66%+21.3
Home clean sheet—54%34%+20
Home win—65.3%47%+18.3
Draw or away—34.7%53%−18.3
Home or draw—89.1%72%+17.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

hnl · 21:00
HNKHNK
NK NK
Stadion Poljud · Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire HN

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.921.99▲+0.07%
X3.503.55▲+0.05%
23.543.40▼-0.14%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals81%46%
94
▲+35pp
Away under 0.5 goals0.5High Signal95Away under 0.5 goals54%32%
94
▲+22pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet85.6%64%
94
▲+21.6pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Away under 1.5 goals87.3%66%
94
▲+21.3pp
Home clean sheetHigh Signal95Home clean sheet54%34%
94
▲+20pp
Home winHigh Signal95Home win65.3%47%
94
▲+18.3pp
Home or drawHigh Signal95Home or draw89.1%72%
94
▲+17.1pp
Both teams to score: noHigh Signal95Both teams to score: no60.4%45%
94
▲+15.4pp
Draw—Draw23.7%26%
94
▼-2.3pp
Away win—Away win10.9%27%
94
▼-16.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 50%model 65%▲+15pp
Xmarket 28%model 24%▼-4pp
2market 29%model 11%▼-18pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.