GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇭🇷 HNL · — · 19:00
versus

Dinamo Zagreb
NK Varazdin

Stadion Maksimir
2 – 1
Full time
73%
Victoire Dinamo Zagreb
DI73
Draw18
NK9
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,40Raw implied probability71,4%Sum of the 1X2 book108,0%Operator margin removed−8,0 ptsDe-margined consensus66%Our model72.5%Measured gap+6.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal1 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—26.6%38%−11.4
Away under 1.0 goals—73.4%62%+11.4
Away over 1.5 goals—17.2%25%−7.8
Away under 1.5 goals—82.8%75%+7.8
Home draw no bet—88.7%82%+6.7
Away draw no bet—11.3%18%−6.7
Home win—72.5%66%+6.5
Draw or away—27.5%34%−6.5
Away over 0.5 goals—52.6%59%−6.4
Away under 0.5 goals—47.4%41%+6.4
Home clean sheet—47.4%41%+6.4
Both teams to score—48.4%54%−5.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

hnl · 21:00
DINDIN
NK NK
Stadion Maksimir
2 – 1
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓72%Dinamo Zagreb win · announced before kick-off
73%
Win DIN
what happened
18%
Draw
9%
Win NK
73%at opening→73%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.401.40•0%
X4.684.68•0%
26.566.56•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1Interesting84.2Away under 1.0 goals73.4%62%
95
▲+11.4pp
Home win—Home win72.5%66%
95
▲+6.5pp
Draw—Draw18.3%20%
95
▼-1.7pp
Away win—Away win9.2%14%
95
▼-4.8pp
Home or draw—Home or draw90.8%86%
95
▲+4.8pp
Home or away—Home or away81.7%80%
95
▲+1.7pp
Draw or away—Draw or away27.5%34%
95
▼-6.5pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet88.7%82%
95
▲+6.7pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet11.3%18%
95
▼-6.7pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score48.4%54%
95
▼-5.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 71%model 73%▲+2pp
Xmarket 21%model 18%▼-3pp
2market 15%model 9%▼-6pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
68
Eligible
68
With a price
68
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.