Interesting🇳🇴 Eliteserien · — · 16:00
versus
Viking
Aalesund
Lyse Arena
Pre-match analysis
72%
Victoire Viking
VI72
Draw16
AA12
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,25Raw implied probability80,0%Sum of the 1X2 book106,1%Operator margin removed−6,1 ptsDe-margined consensus75%Our model71.9%Measured gap−3.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 74
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 3.0 goals—30.9%44%−13.1
Home under 3.0 goals—69.1%56%+13.1
Over 4.0 goals—32.2%45%−12.8
Under 4.0 goals—67.8%55%+12.8
Over 5.0 goals—15.4%27%−11.6
Under 5.0 goals—84.6%73%+11.6
Home over 2.5 goals—45.7%57%−11.3
Home under 2.5 goals—54.3%43%+11.3
Home over 3.5 goals—24.3%35%−10.7
Home under 3.5 goals—75.7%65%+10.7
Over 3.0 goals—57.4%68%−10.6
Under 3.0 goals—42.6%32%+10.6
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
