Interesting🇳🇴 Eliteserien · — · 14:00
versus
Valerenga
Molde
Intility Arena
Pre-match analysis
64%
Both teams to score
VA38
Draw22
MO40
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,59Raw implied probability38,6%Sum of the 1X2 book107,0%Operator margin removed−7,0 ptsDe-margined consensus36%Our model37.9%Measured gap+1.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 4.0 goals—27.6%38%−10.4
Under 4.0 goals—72.4%62%+10.4
Away over 2.0 goals—30.7%40%−9.3
Away under 2.0 goals—69.3%60%+9.3
Over 3.0 goals—52.2%61%−8.8
Under 3.0 goals—47.8%39%+8.8
Over 3.5 goals—40.6%49%−8.4
Under 3.5 goals—59.4%51%+8.4
Over 4.5 goals—22.6%31%−8.4
Under 4.5 goals—77.4%69%+8.4
Over 5.0 goals—12.4%20%−7.6
Under 5.0 goals—87.6%80%+7.6
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
