Watch🇸🇪 Allsvenskan · — · 12:00
versus
Vasteras SK FK
Kalmar FF
Hitachi Energy Arena · Referee g-nyberg
Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals
VA35
Draw30
KA35
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,62Raw implied probability38,2%Sum of the 1X2 book107,2%Operator margin removed−7,2 ptsDe-margined consensus36%Our model35.3%Measured gap−0.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—25.8%42%−16.2
Under 3.0 goals—74.2%58%+16.2
Away over 1.0 goals—50.5%64%−13.5
Away under 1.0 goals—49.5%36%+13.5
Over 2.5 goals—40.9%54%−13.1
Under 2.5 goals—59.1%46%+13.1
Over 2.0 goals—56.2%69%−12.8
Under 2.0 goals—43.8%31%+12.8
Over 3.5 goals—20.5%33%−12.5
Under 3.5 goals—79.5%67%+12.5
Over 4.0 goals—9.8%21%−11.2
Under 4.0 goals—90.2%79%+11.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
