No signal🇸🇪 Allsvenskan · — · 14:30
versus
Hammarby FF
Gais
3Arena · Referee v-wolf
Pre-match analysis
56%
Under 2.5 goals
HA48
Draw28
GA24
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,40Raw implied probability71,4%Sum of the 1X2 book108,1%Operator margin removed−8,1 ptsDe-margined consensus66%Our model48.3%Measured gap−17.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—24.3%54%−29.7
Home under 2.0 goals—75.7%46%+29.7
Over 3.0 goals—28.5%51%−22.5
Under 3.0 goals—71.5%49%+22.5
Home over 1.5 goals—43.1%65%−21.9
Home under 1.5 goals—56.9%35%+21.9
Home over 2.5 goals—18.3%39%−20.7
Home under 2.5 goals—81.7%61%+20.7
Home over 1.0 goals—65.1%85%−19.9
Home under 1.0 goals—34.9%15%+19.9
Home over 3.0 goals—6.9%26%−19.1
Home under 3.0 goals—92.9%74%+18.9
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
