GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇦🇷 Liga Profesional Argentina · — · 17:45
versus

Deportivo Riestra
Velez Sarsfield

Estadio Guillermo Laza
Pre-match analysis
71%
Under 2.5 goals
DE45
Draw33
VE22
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,94Raw implied probability34,0%Sum of the 1X2 book107,3%Operator margin removed−7,3 ptsDe-margined consensus32%Our model44.8%Measured gap+12.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 54
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—66.7%48%+18.7
Away draw no bet—33.3%52%−18.7
Away over 1.0 goals—25.1%40%−14.9
Away under 1.0 goals—74.9%60%+14.9
Home win—44.8%32%+12.8
Draw or away—55.2%68%−12.8
Home over 1.0 goals—49.8%37%+12.8
Home under 1.0 goals—50.2%63%−12.8
Away win—22.4%35%−12.6
Home or draw—77.6%66%+11.6
Away over 1.5 goals—16.3%27%−10.7
Away under 1.5 goals—83.7%73%+10.7

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

argentina-lpf · 19:45
DEPDEP
VELVEL
Estadio Guillermo Laza · Pre-match analysis
71%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.922.94▲+0.02%
X2.782.76▼-0.02%
22.692.70▲+0.01%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet66.7%48%
63
▲+18.7pp
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal94.7Away under 1.0 goals74.9%60%
63
▲+14.9pp
Home winHigh Signal88.4Home win44.8%32%
63
▲+12.8pp
Home over 1.0 goals1High Signal88.4Home over 1.0 goals49.8%37%
63
▲+12.8pp
Home or drawInteresting84.8Home or draw77.6%66%
63
▲+11.6pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting82.1Away under 1.5 goals83.7%73%
63
▲+10.7pp
Away under 0.5 goals0.5Interesting78.8Away under 0.5 goals48.6%39%
63
▲+9.6pp
Home clean sheetInteresting78.8Home clean sheet48.6%39%
63
▲+9.6pp
Draw—Draw32.8%34%
63
▼-1.2pp
Away win—Away win22.4%35%
63
▼-12.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 34%model 45%▲+11pp
Xmarket 36%model 33%▼-3pp
2market 37%model 22%▼-15pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
54
Eligible
54
With a price
54
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.