GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇦🇷 Liga Profesional Argentina · — · 20:00
versus

Belgrano Cordoba
Defensa Y Justicia

Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra · Referee f-espinoza
Pre-match analysis
67%
Under 2.5 goals
BE45
Draw31
DE24
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,80Raw implied probability55,6%Sum of the 1X2 book105,9%Operator margin removed−5,9 ptsDe-margined consensus52%Our model44.5%Measured gap−7.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 56
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—53.6%63%−9.4
Home under 1.0 goals—46.3%37%+9.3
Home over 2.0 goals—15.9%24%−8.1
Home under 2.0 goals—84.1%76%+8.1
Home over 1.5 goals—34.3%42%−7.7
Home under 1.5 goals—65.7%58%+7.7
Home win—44.5%52%−7.5
Draw or away—55.5%48%+7.5
Home draw no bet—64.9%72%−7.1
Away draw no bet—35.1%28%+7.1
Home over 2.5 goals—12.4%19%−6.6
Home under 2.5 goals—87.6%81%+6.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

argentina-lpf · 22:00
BELBEL
DEFDEF
Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra · Pre-match analysis
67%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.801.80•0%
X3.253.30▲+0.05%
24.955.00▲+0.05%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1Interesting77.9Home under 1.0 goals46.3%37%
61
▲+9.3pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting74.3Home under 2.0 goals84.1%76%
61
▲+8.1pp
Home win—Home win44.5%52%
61
▼-7.5pp
Draw—Draw31.4%29%
61
▲+2.4pp
Away win—Away win24.1%19%
61
▲+5.1pp
Home or draw—Home or draw75.9%81%
61
▼-5.1pp
Home or away—Home or away68.6%72%
61
▼-3.4pp
Draw or away—Draw or away55.5%48%
61
▲+7.5pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet64.9%72%
61
▼-7.1pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet35.1%28%
61
▲+7.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 56%model 45%▼-11pp
Xmarket 30%model 31%▲+1pp
2market 20%model 24%▲+4pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
56
Eligible
56
With a price
56
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.