GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Serie A · — · 23:00
versus

Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino

Estadio Do MorumBIS
Pre-match analysis
55%
Victoire Sao Paulo
SA54
Draw24
BR22
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,10Raw implied probability47,6%Sum of the 1X2 book107,0%Operator margin removed−7,0 ptsDe-margined consensus45%Our model54.5%Measured gap+9.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—72.1%61%+11.1
Home under 1.0 goals—27.9%39%−11.1
Draw or away—45.5%56%−10.5
Home win—54.5%45%+9.5
Home over 2.0 goals—31.4%22%+9.4
Home under 2.0 goals—68.7%78%−9.3
Away draw no bet—28.4%37%−8.6
Home draw no bet—71.4%63%+8.4
Home over 1.5 goals—49.3%41%+8.3
Home under 1.5 goals—50.7%59%−8.3
Away clean sheet—19.1%27%−7.9
Home over 0.5 goals—80.9%74%+6.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 01:00
SAOSAO
BRABRA
Estadio Do MorumBIS · Pre-match analysis
55%
Victoire SA

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.102.10•0%
X3.253.25•0%
23.503.50•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 1.0 goals1Interesting83.3Home over 1.0 goals72.1%61%
72
▲+11.1pp
Home winInteresting78.5Home win54.5%45%
72
▲+9.5pp
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting78.2Home over 2.0 goals31.4%22%
72
▲+9.4pp
Home draw no betInteresting75.2Home draw no bet71.4%63%
72
▲+8.4pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting74.9Home over 1.5 goals49.3%41%
72
▲+8.3pp
Draw—Draw23.7%29%
72
▼-5.3pp
Away win—Away win21.7%27%
72
▼-5.3pp
Home or draw—Home or draw78.3%74%
72
▲+4.3pp
Home or away—Home or away76.3%71%
72
▲+5.3pp
Draw or away—Draw or away45.5%56%
72
▼-10.5pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 48%model 54%▲+6pp
Xmarket 31%model 24%▼-7pp
2market 29%model 22%▼-7pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
58
Eligible
58
With a price
58
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.