GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Serie A · — · 21:30
versus

Mirassol
Palmeiras

—
Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals
MI44
Draw26
PA30
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,94Raw implied probability25,4%Sum of the 1X2 book107,0%Operator margin removed−7,0 ptsDe-margined consensus24%Our model44.1%Measured gap+20.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 60
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—63.5%38%+25.5
Home under 1.0 goals—36.5%62%−25.5
Home draw no bet—59.2%34%+25.2
Away draw no bet—40.8%66%−25.2
Home win—44.1%24%+20.1
Draw or away—55.9%76%−20.1
Away win—30.4%48%−17.6
Home or draw—69.6%52%+17.6
Home over 1.5 goals—41.7%25%+16.7
Home under 1.5 goals—58.3%75%−16.7
Home over 0.5 goals—76%60%+16
Home under 0.5 goals—24%40%−16

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 23:30
MIRMIR
PALPAL
— · Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.953.94▼-0.01%
X3.303.30•0%
21.951.95•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home over 1.0 goals63.5%38%
58
▲+25.5pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet59.2%34%
58
▲+25.2pp
Home winHigh Signal95Home win44.1%24%
58
▲+20.1pp
Home or drawHigh Signal95Home or draw69.6%52%
58
▲+17.6pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home over 1.5 goals41.7%25%
58
▲+16.7pp
Home over 0.5 goals0.5High Signal95Home over 0.5 goals76%60%
58
▲+16pp
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal91.1Away under 1.0 goals50.7%37%
58
▲+13.7pp
Home over 2.0 goals2High Signal88.7Home over 2.0 goals22.9%10%
58
▲+12.9pp
Draw—Draw25.5%28%
58
▼-2.5pp
Away win—Away win30.4%48%
58
▼-17.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 25%model 44%▲+19pp
Xmarket 30%model 26%▼-4pp
2market 51%model 30%▼-21pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
60
Eligible
60
With a price
60
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.