Interesting🌍 Serie A · — · 21:30
versus
Atletico-MG
Vitoria
MRV Arena
Pre-match analysis
62%
Under 2.5 goals
AT54
Draw26
VI20
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,62Raw implied probability61,7%Sum of the 1X2 book107,2%Operator margin removed−7,2 ptsDe-margined consensus58%Our model54.1%Measured gap−3.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal7 / 60
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—22.8%33%−10.2
Under 3.0 goals—77.2%67%+10.2
Home over 2.0 goals—23.9%34%−10.1
Home under 2.0 goals—76.1%66%+10.1
Over 2.0 goals—51.6%61%−9.4
Under 2.0 goals—48.2%39%+9.2
Home over 1.0 goals—64.7%73%−8.3
Home under 1.0 goals—35.3%27%+8.3
Home over 1.5 goals—42.7%51%−8.3
Home under 1.5 goals—57.3%49%+8.3
Over 2.5 goals—38%46%−8
Under 2.5 goals—62%54%+8
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
