GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · — · 14:00
versus

Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense

Arena da Baixada
Pre-match analysis
69%
Under 2.5 goals
AT34
Draw30
FL36
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,25Raw implied probability44,4%Sum of the 1X2 book106,8%Operator margin removed−6,8 ptsDe-margined consensus42%Our model33.5%Measured gap−8.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—39.2%56%−16.8
Home under 1.0 goals—60.8%44%+16.8
Home over 1.5 goals—24.8%36%−11.2
Home under 1.5 goals—75.2%64%+11.2
Home draw no bet—48.1%59%−10.9
Away draw no bet—51.9%41%+10.9
Over 2.0 goals—42.5%53%−10.5
Under 2.0 goals—57.4%47%+10.4
Away clean sheet—38.4%29%+9.4
Home over 2.0 goals—8.7%18%−9.3
Home under 2.0 goals—91.3%82%+9.3
Under 3.0 goals—83.6%75%+8.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 16:00
ATLATL
FLUFLU
Arena da Baixada · Pre-match analysis
69%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.252.25•0%
X3.103.12▲+0.02%
23.303.30•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals60.8%44%
46
▲+16.8pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting83.6Home under 1.5 goals75.2%64%
46
▲+11.2pp
Away draw no betInteresting82.7Away draw no bet51.9%41%
46
▲+10.9pp
Under 2.0 goals2Interesting81.2Under 2.0 goals57.4%47%
46
▲+10.4pp
Away clean sheetInteresting78.2Away clean sheet38.4%29%
46
▲+9.4pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting77.9Home under 2.0 goals91.3%82%
46
▲+9.3pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting75.8Under 3.0 goals83.6%75%
46
▲+8.6pp
Home under 0.5 goals0.5Interesting75.2Home under 0.5 goals38.4%30%
46
▲+8.4pp
Home win—Home win33.5%42%
46
▼-8.5pp
Draw—Draw30.4%30%
46
▲+0.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 44%model 34%▼-10pp
Xmarket 32%model 30%▼-2pp
2market 30%model 36%▲+6pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
58
Eligible
58
With a price
58
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.