GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · — · 19:00
versus

Vitoria
Bahia

Barradao · Referee r-claus
Pre-match analysis
60%
Under 2.5 goals
VI40
Draw28
BA32
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,57Raw implied probability38,9%Sum of the 1X2 book106,5%Operator margin removed−6,5 ptsDe-margined consensus37%Our model39.9%Measured gap+2.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—24.7%37%−12.3
Away over 1.0 goals—45.7%58%−12.3
Away under 1.0 goals—54.3%42%+12.3
Under 3.0 goals—75.2%63%+12.2
Under 2.0 goals—45.9%36%+9.9
Over 2.0 goals—54.2%64%−9.8
Away over 2.0 goals—11.6%21%−9.4
Away under 2.0 goals—88.4%79%+9.4
Both teams to score—45.8%55%−9.2
Both teams to score: no—54.2%45%+9.2
Away over 1.5 goals—28.9%38%−9.1
Away under 1.5 goals—71.1%62%+9.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 21:00
VITVIT
BAHBAH
Barradao · Pre-match analysis
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.452.57▲+0.12%
X3.243.22▼-0.02%
22.842.74▼-0.1%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal86.9Away under 1.0 goals54.3%42%
52
▲+12.3pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal86.6Under 3.0 goals75.2%63%
52
▲+12.2pp
Under 2.0 goals2Interesting79.7Under 2.0 goals45.9%36%
52
▲+9.9pp
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting78.2Away under 2.0 goals88.4%79%
52
▲+9.4pp
Both teams to score: noInteresting77.6Both teams to score: no54.2%45%
52
▲+9.2pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting77.3Away under 1.5 goals71.1%62%
52
▲+9.1pp
Under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting77Under 2.5 goals60%51%
52
▲+9pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting76.1Under 4.0 goals90.7%82%
52
▲+8.7pp
Home win—Home win39.9%37%
52
▲+2.9pp
Draw—Draw27.6%29%
52
▼-1.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 39%model 40%▲+1pp
Xmarket 31%model 28%▼-3pp
2market 36%model 32%▼-4pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.