GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · · 19:00
versus

Vitoria
Bahia

Barradao · Referee r-claus
Pre-match analysis
60%
Under 2.5 goals
VI40
Draw28
BA32
Why
Vitoria takes 1.93 points per game at home, the opponent 1.03 away
Bahia has 6 declared absences
Vitoria takes 1.93 points per game at home against 0.52 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could fool us
Vitoria's defence sits at the 33th percentile — among the weakest
Vitoria has 14 declared absences
Bahia takes 2.03 points per game at home against 1.03 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Vitoria at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

VITVIT
BAHBAH
Barradao · Pre-match analysis
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
VIT
28%
Draw
32%
BAH
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Vitoria takes 1.93 points per game at home, the opponent 1.03 away
  • Bahia has 6 declared absences
  • Vitoria takes 1.93 points per game at home against 0.52 away — two different sides depending on the ground

What could mislead us

  • Vitoria's defence sits at the 33th percentile — among the weakest
  • Vitoria has 14 declared absences
  • Bahia takes 2.03 points per game at home against 1.03 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 1.0 goals1Strength 86.9/100
Away under 1.0 goals
Model
54.3%
Market
42%
Divergence
+12.3

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 54.3%, the market at 42%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
r-claus
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 20
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Vitoria at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions