GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Serie A · — · 21:30
versus

Santos
Mirassol

Estadio Urbano Caldeira · Referee e-batista
Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals
SA34
Draw26
MI40
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,90Raw implied probability52,6%Sum of the 1X2 book105,8%Operator margin removed−5,8 ptsDe-margined consensus50%Our model34.1%Measured gap−15.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—46%68%−22
Away draw no bet—54%32%+22
Home over 1.0 goals—53.5%72%−18.5
Home under 1.0 goals—46.5%28%+18.5
Home under 2.0 goals—84.3%67%+17.3
Home or draw—59.9%77%−17.1
Home over 2.0 goals—15.9%33%−17.1
Away win—40.1%24%+16.1
Home win—34.1%50%−15.9
Draw or away—65.9%50%+15.9
Home over 1.5 goals—34.2%49%−14.8
Home under 1.5 goals—65.8%51%+14.8

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 23:30
SANSAN
MIRMIR
Estadio Urbano Caldeira · Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.881.90▲+0.02%
X3.503.55▲+0.05%
24.004.00•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet54%32%
54
▲+22pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals46.5%28%
54
▲+18.5pp
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home under 2.0 goals84.3%67%
54
▲+17.3pp
Away winHigh Signal95Away win40.1%24%
54
▲+16.1pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away65.9%50%
54
▲+15.9pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal94.4Home under 1.5 goals65.8%51%
54
▲+14.8pp
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal91.4Away over 1.0 goals59.8%46%
54
▲+13.8pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting84.8Home under 2.5 goals87.6%76%
54
▲+11.6pp
Home win—Home win34.1%50%
54
▼-15.9pp
Draw—Draw25.8%27%
54
▼-1.2pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 53%model 34%▼-19pp
Xmarket 28%model 26%▼-2pp
2market 25%model 40%▲+15pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.