GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Serie A · · 21:30
versus

Santos
Mirassol

Estadio Urbano Caldeira · Referee e-batista
Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals
SA34
Draw26
MI40
Why
Santos takes 1.55 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
Mirassol has 16 declared absences
Santos takes 1.55 points per game at home against 0.83 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could fool us
Mirassol's attack sits at the 85th percentile of the league
Santos's defence sits at the 27th percentile — among the weakest
Santos has 6 declared absences
4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
Mirassol takes 1.97 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Mirassol at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

SANSAN
MIRMIR
Estadio Urbano Caldeira · Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
SAN
26%
Draw
40%
MIR
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Santos takes 1.55 points per game at home, the opponent 1 away
  • Mirassol has 16 declared absences
  • Santos takes 1.55 points per game at home against 0.83 away — two different sides depending on the ground

What could mislead us

  • Mirassol's attack sits at the 85th percentile of the league
  • Santos's defence sits at the 27th percentile — among the weakest
  • Santos has 6 declared absences
  • 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
  • Mirassol takes 1.97 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away draw no betStrength 95/100
Away draw no bet
Model
54%
Market
32%
Divergence
+22

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 54%, the market at 32%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
e-batista
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 20
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Mirassol at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions