GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Serie A · — · 19:00
versus

Palmeiras
Vasco DA Gama

Nubank Parque · Referee b-machado
Pre-match analysis
77%
Victoire Palmeiras
PA77
Draw14
VA9
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,57Raw implied probability63,7%Sum of the 1X2 book106,9%Operator margin removed−6,9 ptsDe-margined consensus60%Our model76.7%Measured gap+16.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—65.7%39%+26.7
Home under 2.0 goals—34.3%61%−26.7
Over 3.0 goals—58%37%+21
Under 3.0 goals—42%63%−21
Home over 2.5 goals—49.4%29%+20.4
Home under 2.5 goals—50.6%71%−20.4
Home over 1.5 goals—74.2%55%+19.2
Home under 1.5 goals—25.8%45%−19.2
Home over 3.0 goals—35.2%16%+19.2
Home under 3.0 goals—64.8%84%−19.2
Draw or away—23.3%41%−17.7
Over 2.0 goals—82.4%65%+17.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 21:00
PALPAL
VASVAS
Nubank Parque · Pre-match analysis
77%
Victoire PA

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.621.57▼-0.05%
X3.843.90▲+0.06%
25.255.70▲+0.45%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home over 2.0 goals65.7%39%
95
▲+26.7pp
Over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Over 3.0 goals58%37%
95
▲+21pp
Home over 2.5 goals2.5High Signal95Home over 2.5 goals49.4%29%
95
▲+20.4pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home over 1.5 goals74.2%55%
95
▲+19.2pp
Home over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Home over 3.0 goals35.2%16%
95
▲+19.2pp
Over 2.0 goals2High Signal95Over 2.0 goals82.4%65%
95
▲+17.4pp
Home winHigh Signal95Home win76.7%60%
95
▲+16.7pp
Over 3.5 goals3.5High Signal95Over 3.5 goals45.4%29%
95
▲+16.4pp
Draw—Draw14.1%24%
95
▼-9.9pp
Away win—Away win9.2%16%
95
▼-6.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 64%model 77%▲+13pp
Xmarket 26%model 14%▼-12pp
2market 18%model 9%▼-9pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.