GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Serie A · — · 19:00
versus

RB Bragantino
Gremio

— · Referee f-fernandes-de-lima
Pre-match analysis
55%
Both teams to score
BR43
Draw25
GR32
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,73Raw implied probability57,8%Sum of the 1X2 book105,9%Operator margin removed−5,9 ptsDe-margined consensus55%Our model43.4%Measured gap−11.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—54.8%40%+14.8
Away under 1.0 goals—45.2%60%−14.8
Home draw no bet—57.6%72%−14.4
Away draw no bet—42.4%28%+14.4
Away win—31.9%20%+11.9
Home or draw—68.1%80%−11.9
Home win—43.4%55%−11.6
Draw or away—56.6%45%+11.6
Away over 0.5 goals—71%61%+10
Away under 0.5 goals—29%39%−10
Home over 2.0 goals—25.1%35%−9.9
Home under 2.0 goals—74.9%65%+9.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 21:00
BRABRA
GREGRE
— · Pre-match analysis
55%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.731.73•0%
X3.703.70•0%
24.604.75▲+0.15%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal94.4Away over 1.0 goals54.8%40%
58
▲+14.8pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal93.2Away draw no bet42.4%28%
58
▲+14.4pp
Away winInteresting85.7Away win31.9%20%
58
▲+11.9pp
Draw or awayInteresting84.8Draw or away56.6%45%
58
▲+11.6pp
Away over 0.5 goals0.5Interesting80Away over 0.5 goals71%61%
58
▲+10pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting79.7Home under 2.0 goals74.9%65%
58
▲+9.9pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting77.3Away over 1.5 goals35.1%26%
58
▲+9.1pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting74.6Home under 1.5 goals56.2%48%
58
▲+8.2pp
Home win—Home win43.4%55%
58
▼-11.6pp
Draw—Draw24.7%26%
58
▼-1.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 58%model 43%▼-15pp
Xmarket 27%model 25%▼-2pp
2market 21%model 32%▲+11pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.