GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · — · 23:00
versus

Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos · Referee a-policarpo-bento
Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire Botafogo
BO65
Draw21
AT14
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,25Raw implied probability44,4%Sum of the 1X2 book106,6%Operator margin removed−6,6 ptsDe-margined consensus42%Our model64.6%Measured gap+22.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—24.4%50%−25.6
Away under 1.0 goals—75.6%50%+25.6
Home draw no bet—82.1%58%+24.1
Away draw no bet—17.9%42%−24.1
Draw or away—35.4%59%−23.6
Home win—64.6%42%+22.6
Away over 0.5 goals—50.8%67%−16.2
Away under 0.5 goals—49.2%33%+16.2
Away over 1.5 goals—15.9%32%−16.1
Away under 1.5 goals—84.1%68%+16.1
Home clean sheet—49.2%34%+15.2
Home or draw—85.9%71%+14.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Brasileirão · 01:00
BOTBOT
ATLATL
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos · Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire BO

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.202.25▲+0.05%
X3.063.10▲+0.04%
23.353.35•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals75.6%50%
91
▲+25.6pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet82.1%58%
91
▲+24.1pp
Home winHigh Signal95Home win64.6%42%
91
▲+22.6pp
Away under 0.5 goals0.5High Signal95Away under 0.5 goals49.2%33%
91
▲+16.2pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Away under 1.5 goals84.1%68%
91
▲+16.1pp
Home clean sheetHigh Signal95Home clean sheet49.2%34%
91
▲+15.2pp
Home or drawHigh Signal94.7Home or draw85.9%71%
91
▲+14.9pp
Home over 1.0 goals1High Signal93.5Home over 1.0 goals77.5%63%
91
▲+14.5pp
Draw—Draw21.3%30%
91
▼-8.7pp
Away win—Away win14.1%28%
91
▼-13.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 44%model 65%▲+21pp
Xmarket 32%model 21%▼-11pp
2market 30%model 14%▼-16pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.