GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Serie A · · 23:00
versus

Botafogo
Atletico Paranaense

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos · Referee a-policarpo-bento
Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire Botafogo
BO65
Draw21
AT14
Why
Botafogo's attack sits at the 90th percentile of the league
Botafogo takes 1.86 points per game at home, the opponent 1.27 away
Atletico Paranaense has 10 declared absences
Botafogo takes 1.86 points per game at home against 1.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Botafogo scores 2 goals per game at home
What could fool us
Atletico Paranaense's attack sits at the 73th percentile of the league
Botafogo has 8 declared absences
Atletico Paranaense takes 2.25 points per game at home against 1.27 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Atletico Paranaense has won 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Botafogo at 65%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

BOTBOT
ATLATL
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos · Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire BO
65%
BOT
21%
Draw
14%
ATL
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Botafogo's attack sits at the 90th percentile of the league
  • Botafogo takes 1.86 points per game at home, the opponent 1.27 away
  • Atletico Paranaense has 10 declared absences
  • Botafogo takes 1.86 points per game at home against 1.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Botafogo scores 2 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • Atletico Paranaense's attack sits at the 73th percentile of the league
  • Botafogo has 8 declared absences
  • Atletico Paranaense takes 2.25 points per game at home against 1.27 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Atletico Paranaense has won 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Away under 1.0 goals
Model
75.6%
Market
50%
Divergence
+25.6

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 75.6%, the market at 50%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
a-policarpo-bento
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 20
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Botafogo at 65%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions