GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:00
versus

Atlanta United FC
Sporting Kansas City

Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Pre-match analysis
62%
Both teams to score
AT48
Draw24
KA28
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,67Raw implied probability59,9%Sum of the 1X2 book106,2%Operator margin removed−6,2 ptsDe-margined consensus56%Our model47.9%Measured gap−8.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—36.5%47%−10.5
Home under 2.0 goals—63.5%53%+10.5
Away draw no bet—37.4%28%+9.4
Home draw no bet—62.7%72%−9.3
Home over 2.5 goals—26.7%35%−8.3
Home under 2.5 goals—73.3%65%+8.3
Home over 3.0 goals—12.7%21%−8.3
Home under 3.0 goals—87.3%79%+8.3
Home win—47.9%56%−8.1
Draw or away—52.1%44%+8.1
Away win—28.6%21%+7.6
Home over 1.5 goals—53.5%61%−7.5

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:00
ATLATL
KANKAN
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Pre-match analysis
62%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.671.67•0%
X4.204.20•0%
24.334.45▲+0.12%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting81.5Home under 2.0 goals63.5%53%
64
▲+10.5pp
Away draw no betInteresting78.2Away draw no bet37.4%28%
64
▲+9.4pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting74.9Home under 2.5 goals73.3%65%
64
▲+8.3pp
Home under 3.0 goals3Interesting74.9Home under 3.0 goals87.3%79%
64
▲+8.3pp
Draw or awayInteresting74.3Draw or away52.1%44%
64
▲+8.1pp
Home win—Home win47.9%56%
64
▼-8.1pp
Draw—Draw23.6%22%
64
▲+1.6pp
Away win—Away win28.6%21%
64
▲+7.6pp
Home or draw—Home or draw71.4%78%
64
▼-6.6pp
Home or away—Home or away76.4%78%
64
▼-1.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 60%model 48%▼-12pp
Xmarket 24%model 24%•0pp
2market 22%model 28%▲+6pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
68
Eligible
68
With a price
68
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.