GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 20:30
versus

New England Revolution
New York City FC

Gillette Stadium
Pre-match analysis
57%
Both teams to score
EN31
Draw25
NE44
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,30Raw implied probability43,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,0%Operator margin removed−6,0 ptsDe-margined consensus41%Our model30.7%Measured gap−10.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal7 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—41.2%56%−14.8
Away draw no bet—58.8%44%+14.8
Home over 1.0 goals—55.7%68%−12.3
Home under 1.0 goals—44.2%32%+12.2
Home over 2.0 goals—17.2%29%−11.8
Home under 2.0 goals—82.8%71%+11.8
Home over 1.5 goals—35.8%47%−11.2
Home under 1.5 goals—64.2%53%+11.2
Away win—43.8%33%+10.8
Home or draw—56.2%67%−10.8
Home win—30.7%41%−10.3
Draw or away—69.3%60%+9.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 22:30
ENGENG
NEWNEW
Gillette Stadium · Pre-match analysis
57%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.422.30▼-0.12%
X3.603.60•0%
22.632.88▲+0.25%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal94.4Away draw no bet58.8%44%
59
▲+14.8pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal86.6Home under 1.0 goals44.2%32%
59
▲+12.2pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting85.4Home under 2.0 goals82.8%71%
59
▲+11.8pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting83.6Home under 1.5 goals64.2%53%
59
▲+11.2pp
Away winInteresting82.4Away win43.8%33%
59
▲+10.8pp
Draw or awayInteresting77.9Draw or away69.3%60%
59
▲+9.3pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting76.1Home under 2.5 goals86.7%78%
59
▲+8.7pp
Home win—Home win30.7%41%
59
▼-10.3pp
Draw—Draw25.5%26%
59
▼-0.5pp
Home or draw—Home or draw56.2%67%
59
▼-10.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 43%model 31%▼-12pp
Xmarket 28%model 25%▼-3pp
2market 35%model 44%▲+9pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.