GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 02:30
versus

San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC

PayPal Park
Pre-match analysis
66%
Both teams to score
JO33
Draw23
MI44
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,20Raw implied probability45,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,1%Operator margin removed−6,1 ptsDe-margined consensus43%Our model32.9%Measured gap−10.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—42.8%56%−13.2
Away draw no bet—57.2%44%+13.2
Home or draw—56%69%−13
Away win—44%32%+12
Draw or away—67.1%56%+11.1
Home win—32.9%43%−10.1
Home over 2.0 goals—26.9%37%−10.1
Home under 2.0 goals—73.1%63%+10.1
Away over 2.0 goals—36.9%28%+8.9
Away under 2.0 goals—63.1%72%−8.9
Away over 1.0 goals—76.5%68%+8.5
Away under 1.0 goals—23.5%32%−8.5

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 04:30
JOSJOS
MINMIN
PayPal Park · Pre-match analysis
66%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.002.20▲+0.2%
X3.903.75▼-0.15%
23.302.94▼-0.36%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal89.6Away draw no bet57.2%44%
61
▲+13.2pp
Away winHigh Signal86Away win44%32%
61
▲+12pp
Draw or awayInteresting83.3Draw or away67.1%56%
61
▲+11.1pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting80.3Home under 2.0 goals73.1%63%
61
▲+10.1pp
Away over 2.0 goals2Interesting76.7Away over 2.0 goals36.9%28%
61
▲+8.9pp
Away over 1.0 goals1Interesting75.5Away over 1.0 goals76.5%68%
61
▲+8.5pp
Home win—Home win32.9%43%
61
▼-10.1pp
Draw—Draw23.1%25%
61
▼-1.9pp
Home or draw—Home or draw56%69%
61
▼-13pp
Home or away—Home or away76.9%75%
61
▲+1.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 45%model 33%▼-12pp
Xmarket 27%model 23%▼-4pp
2market 34%model 44%▲+10pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
70
Eligible
70
With a price
70
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.