Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 02:30
versus
Los Angeles FC
Portland Timbers
BMO Stadium
Pre-match analysis
66%
Victoire Los Angeles FC
LO66
Draw20
PO14
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,62Raw implied probability61,7%Sum of the 1X2 book106,2%Operator margin removed−6,2 ptsDe-margined consensus58%Our model66.1%Measured gap+8.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—35.5%56%−20.5
Away under 1.0 goals—64.5%44%+20.5
Away over 1.5 goals—22.5%37%−14.5
Away under 1.5 goals—77.5%63%+14.5
Over 3.0 goals—46.9%59%−12.1
Under 3.0 goals—53.1%41%+12.1
Away over 0.5 goals—59.1%71%−11.9
Away under 0.5 goals—40.9%29%+11.9
Home clean sheet—40.9%29%+11.9
Under 4.0 goals—76.7%65%+11.7
Both teams to score—52.4%64%−11.6
Both teams to score: no—47.6%36%+11.6
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
