GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 00:30
versus

St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo

CITYPARK
1 – 0
42:00
59%
Both teams to score
ST42
Draw25
HO33
Head to head
2
ST.
3
Draw
3
HOU
mai 2026ST. — HOU2 – 2
août 2025ST. — HOU2 – 3
juin 2025HOU — ST.1 – 0
oct. 2024ST. — HOU3 – 0
mai 2024HOU — ST.0 – 0
févr. 2024HOU — ST.1 – 0
févr. 2024ST. — HOU2 – 1
sept. 2023HOU — ST.1 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h42%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 02:3042'
ST.ST.
HOUHOU
CITYPARK
1 – 0
42:00

Live intelligence

i42'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–0, 42'
71%
ST win
20%
Draw
9%
HO win
▲+29ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO42'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 26'Yellow Card ST.A. MatanST.
  • 23'Normal Goal ST.S. BecherST.
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp23' — ST. goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ST.'s control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
ST winDrawHO win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260823_af-1490414_210805hv1.9.354%45%

What would have to change

i22.3 pt span
Red card42 → 20.9-21.1
Opponent scores first42 → 39.2-2.8
High tempo42 → 43.2+1.2
Low tempo42 → 41-1
Key substitution42 → 41-1
Early goal42 → 420

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
2
ST wins
3
Draws
3
HO wins
20 May 2026ST. — HOU2 – 2
31 Aug 2025ST. — HOU2 – 3
29 Jun 2025HOU — ST.1 – 0
6 Oct 2024ST. — HOU3 – 0
5 May 2024HOU — ST.0 – 0
28 Feb 2024HOU — ST.1 – 0
21 Feb 2024ST. — HOU2 – 1
17 Sept 2023HOU — ST.1 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

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