GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 00:30
versus

St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo

CITYPARK
1 – 0
42:00
59%
Both teams to score
ST42
Draw25
HO33
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,11Raw implied probability47,4%Sum of the 1X2 book106,3%Operator margin removed−6,3 ptsDe-margined consensus45%Our model42.5%Measured gap−2.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal1 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—60.4%52%+8.4
Away under 1.0 goals—39.6%48%−8.4
Under 2.0 goals—26.8%33%−6.2
Over 2.0 goals—73.1%67%+6.1
Away over 0.5 goals—74.2%69%+5.2
Away under 0.5 goals—25.8%31%−5.2
Home or draw—67.4%72%−4.6
Away draw no bet—43.5%39%+4.5
Over 1.0 goals—93.5%89%+4.5
Under 1.0 goals—6.6%11%−4.4
Over 1.5 goals—79.4%75%+4.4
Under 1.5 goals—20.6%25%−4.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 02:3042'
ST.ST.
HOUHOU
CITYPARK
1 – 0
42:00

Live intelligence

i42'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–0, 42'
71%
ST win
20%
Draw
9%
HO win
▲+29ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO42'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 26'Yellow Card ST.A. MatanST.
  • 23'Normal Goal ST.S. BecherST.
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp23' — ST. goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ST.'s control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.002.11▲+0.11%
X3.703.50▼-0.2%
23.303.30•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 1.0 goals1Interesting75.2Away over 1.0 goals60.4%52%
57
▲+8.4pp
Home win—Home win42.5%45%
57
▼-2.5pp
Draw—Draw25%27%
57
▼-2pp
Away win—Away win32.6%29%
57
▲+3.6pp
Home or draw—Home or draw67.4%72%
57
▼-4.6pp
Home or away—Home or away75%73%
57
▲+2pp
Draw or away—Draw or away57.5%55%
57
▲+2.5pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet56.7%61%
57
▼-4.3pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet43.5%39%
57
▲+4.5pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score59.2%56%
57
▲+3.2pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 47%model 42%▼-5pp
Xmarket 29%model 25%▼-4pp
2market 30%model 33%▲+3pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.