GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Major League Soccer · · 00:30
versus

St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo

CITYPARK
10
42:00
59%
Both teams to score
ST42
Draw25
HO33
Why
Houston Dynamo has 8 declared absences
St. Louis City has won 4 of its last 6
What could fool us
St. Louis City has 8 declared absences
Houston Dynamo has won 5 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices St. Louis City at 42%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

ST.ST.
HOUHOU
CITYPARK
10
42:00

Live intelligence

i42'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–0, 42'
71%
ST win
20%
Draw
9%
HO win
+29ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO42'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 26'Yellow Card ST.A. MatanST.
  • 23'Normal Goal ST.S. BecherST.
Model changes
  • +14pp23' — ST. goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted ST.'s control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

42%
ST.
25%
Draw
33%
HOU
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Houston Dynamo has 8 declared absences
  • St. Louis City has won 4 of its last 6

What could mislead us

  • St. Louis City has 8 declared absences
  • Houston Dynamo has won 5 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

Interesting
Away over 1.0 goals1Strength 75.2/100
Away over 1.0 goals
Model
60.4%
Market
52%
Divergence
+8.4

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 60.4%, the market at 52%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices St. Louis City at 42%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions