No signal🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 01:00
versus
Austin
Philadelphia Union
Q2 Stadium
0 – 0
13:00
57%
Under 2.5 goals
AU24
Draw27
PH49
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,40Raw implied probability29,4%Sum of the 1X2 book106,4%Operator margin removed−6,4 ptsDe-margined consensus28%Our model23.8%Measured gap−4.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—37.9%58%−20.1
Home under 1.0 goals—61.9%42%+19.9
Over 3.0 goals—28.1%47%−18.9
Under 3.0 goals—71.9%53%+18.9
Over 2.5 goals—43.1%59%−15.9
Under 2.5 goals—56.9%41%+15.9
Over 3.5 goals—22.2%38%−15.8
Under 3.5 goals—77.8%62%+15.8
Over 2.0 goals—58.6%74%−15.4
Under 2.0 goals—41.4%26%+15.4
Over 4.0 goals—11%26%−15
Under 4.0 goals—89%74%+15
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
