GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Major League Soccer · · 01:00
versus

Austin
Philadelphia Union

Q2 Stadium
00
13:00
57%
Under 2.5 goals
AU24
Draw27
PH49
Why
Philadelphia Union has 6 declared absences
Austin takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.86 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could fool us
Austin's defence sits at the 32th percentile — among the weakest
Philadelphia Union takes 1.89 points per game at home against 1.22 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Austin has lost 4 of its last 6
Philadelphia Union has won 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Philadelphia Union at 49%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

AUSAUS
PHIPHI
Q2 Stadium
00
13:00

Live intelligence

i13'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–0, 13'
24%
AU win
29%
Draw
47%
PH win
0ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO13'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments

No significant event recorded yet.

Model changes
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

24%
AUS
27%
Draw
49%
PHI
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Philadelphia Union has 6 declared absences
  • Austin takes 1.5 points per game at home against 0.86 away — two different sides depending on the ground

What could mislead us

  • Austin's defence sits at the 32th percentile — among the weakest
  • Philadelphia Union takes 1.89 points per game at home against 1.22 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Austin has lost 4 of its last 6
  • Philadelphia Union has won 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Home under 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Home under 1.0 goals
Model
61.9%
Market
42%
Divergence
+19.9

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 61.9%, the market at 42%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Philadelphia Union at 49%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions