GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 00:30
versus

Nashville SC
Columbus Crew

Geodis Park
1 – 0
42:00
63%
Both teams to score
NA40
Draw24
CO36
Head to head
4
NAS
2
Draw
2
COL
mars 2026COL — NAS0 – 1
févr. 2026NAS — COL1 – 0
juil. 2025NAS — COL3 – 0
mai 2025COL — NAS2 – 2
juil. 2024COL — NAS2 – 0
mars 2024NAS — COL2 – 2
juin 2023COL — NAS2 – 0
mai 2023NAS — COL3 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h40%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 02:3042'
NASNAS
COLCOL
Geodis Park
1 – 0
42:00

Live intelligence

i42'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–0, 42'
69%
NA win
21%
Draw
10%
CO win
▲+29ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO42'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 39'Yellow Card NASD. LovitzNAS
  • 27'Normal Goal NASH. MukhtarNAS
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp27' — NAS goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted NAS's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

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What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
NA winDrawCO win

Snapshot ledger

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SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260823_af-1490412_210805hv1.9.354%44%

What would have to change

i22 pt span
Red card40 → 18.9-21.1
Opponent scores first40 → 37.2-2.8
High tempo40 → 38.9-1.1
Key substitution40 → 39-1
Low tempo40 → 40.9+0.9
Early goal40 → 400

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

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Head to head

i
4
NA wins
2
Draws
2
CO wins
14 Mar 2026COL — NAS0 – 1
11 Feb 2026NAS — COL1 – 0
17 Jul 2025NAS — COL3 – 0
29 May 2025COL — NAS2 – 2
4 Jul 2024COL — NAS2 – 0
31 Mar 2024NAS — COL2 – 2
25 Jun 2023COL — NAS2 – 0
29 May 2023NAS — COL3 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

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