GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 00:30
versus

Nashville SC
Columbus Crew

Geodis Park
1 – 0
42:00
63%
Both teams to score
NA40
Draw24
CO36
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,68Raw implied probability59,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,4%Operator margin removed−6,4 ptsDe-margined consensus56%Our model39.9%Measured gap−16.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—66.9%44%+22.9
Away under 1.0 goals—33.1%56%−22.9
Away draw no bet—47.4%27%+20.4
Home draw no bet—52.7%73%−20.3
Home win—39.9%56%−16.1
Away win—35.9%20%+15.9
Home or draw—64.1%80%−15.9
Away over 1.5 goals—44.6%29%+15.6
Away under 1.5 goals—55.4%71%−15.6
Draw or away—60.1%45%+15.1
Away over 0.5 goals—77.9%64%+13.9
Away under 0.5 goals—22.1%36%−13.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 02:3042'
NASNAS
COLCOL
Geodis Park
1 – 0
42:00

Live intelligence

i42'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–0, 42'
69%
NA win
21%
Draw
10%
CO win
▲+29ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO42'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 39'Yellow Card NASD. LovitzNAS
  • 27'Normal Goal NASH. MukhtarNAS
Model changes
  • ▲+14pp27' — NAS goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted NAS's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.811.68▼-0.13%
X3.803.90▲+0.1%
23.944.70▲+0.76%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away over 1.0 goals66.9%44%
56
▲+22.9pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet47.4%27%
56
▲+20.4pp
Away winHigh Signal95Away win35.9%20%
56
▲+15.9pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Away over 1.5 goals44.6%29%
56
▲+15.6pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away60.1%45%
56
▲+15.1pp
Away over 0.5 goals0.5High Signal91.7Away over 0.5 goals77.9%64%
56
▲+13.9pp
Away over 2.0 goals2High Signal88.7Away over 2.0 goals25.9%13%
56
▲+12.9pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting79.1Home under 2.0 goals70.7%61%
56
▲+9.7pp
Home win—Home win39.9%56%
56
▼-16.1pp
Draw—Draw24.3%24%
56
▲+0.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 60%model 40%▼-20pp
Xmarket 26%model 24%▼-2pp
2market 21%model 36%▲+15pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.