GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · · 00:30
versus

Nashville SC
Columbus Crew

Geodis Park
10
42:00
63%
Both teams to score
NA40
Draw24
CO36
Why
Nashville SC's attack sits at the 82th percentile of the league
Nashville SC takes 2.44 points per game at home, the opponent 0.97 away
Columbus Crew has 6 declared absences
Nashville SC takes 2.44 points per game at home against 1.24 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Nashville SC has won 4 of its last 6
Nashville SC scores 2.5 goals per game at home
Columbus Crew concedes 1.9 goals per game away
What could fool us
Columbus Crew takes 1.7 points per game at home against 0.97 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Nashville SC at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

NASNAS
COLCOL
Geodis Park
10
42:00

Live intelligence

i42'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–0, 42'
69%
NA win
21%
Draw
10%
CO win
+29ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO42'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Home side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 39'Yellow Card NASD. LovitzNAS
  • 27'Normal Goal NASH. MukhtarNAS
Model changes
  • +14pp27' — NAS goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted NAS's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

40%
NAS
24%
Draw
36%
COL
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Nashville SC's attack sits at the 82th percentile of the league
  • Nashville SC takes 2.44 points per game at home, the opponent 0.97 away
  • Columbus Crew has 6 declared absences
  • Nashville SC takes 2.44 points per game at home against 1.24 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Nashville SC has won 4 of its last 6
  • Nashville SC scores 2.5 goals per game at home
  • Columbus Crew concedes 1.9 goals per game away

What could mislead us

  • Columbus Crew takes 1.7 points per game at home against 0.97 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away over 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Away over 1.0 goals
Model
66.9%
Market
44%
Divergence
+22.9

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 66.9%, the market at 44%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Nashville SC at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions