GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire

Sports Illustrated Stadium
0 – 1
81:00
66%
Both teams to score
YO44
Draw23
CH33
Head to head
2
YOR
3
Draw
3
CHI
mai 2026CHI — YOR1 – 3
juil. 2025CHI — YOR1 – 0
avr. 2025YOR — CHI2 – 1
sept. 2024CHI — YOR2 – 1
avr. 2024YOR — CHI0 – 0
janv. 2024CHI — YOR2 – 2
sept. 2023YOR — CHI0 – 1
avr. 2023CHI — YOR1 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h44%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

MLS · 01:3081'
YORYOR
CHICHI
Sports Illustrated Stadium
0 – 1
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–1, 81'
1%
YO win
13%
Draw
86%
CH win
▼-43ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Away side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 3 CHIV. RadojevicCHI
  • 66'Yellow Card YORM. SofoYOR
  • 65'Substitution 1 CHIS. WilliamsCHI
  • 65'Substitution 2 CHIP. ZinckernagelCHI
  • 64'Yellow Card CHIJ. WatermanCHI
  • 57'Substitution 5 YORE. ForsbergYOR
  • 56'Substitution 4 YORD. NealisYOR
  • 46'Substitution 1 YORM. JimenezYOR
  • 46'Substitution 2 YORC. CowellYOR
  • 46'Substitution 3 YORM. Dos SantosYOR
  • 38'Normal Goal CHIM. Haile-SelassieCHI
  • 17'Yellow Card CHIL. BarrosoCHI
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp38' — CHI goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHI's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Time Machine

i

What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

i
YO winDrawCH win

Snapshot ledger

i
SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260822_af-1490409_210805hv1.9.354%49%

What would have to change

i21.8 pt span
Red card44 → 22.9-21.1
Opponent scores first44 → 41.2-2.8
Key substitution44 → 43-1
High tempo44 → 44.7+0.7
Low tempo44 → 43.4-0.6
Early goal44 → 440

No single change reverses the lean, which is what makes the headline probability worth reading.

Scenario library

i

Head to head

i
2
YO wins
3
Draws
3
CH wins
9 May 2026CHI — YOR1 – 3
27 Jul 2025CHI — YOR1 – 0
6 Apr 2025YOR — CHI2 – 1
15 Sept 2024CHI — YOR2 – 1
14 Apr 2024YOR — CHI0 – 0
27 Jan 2024CHI — YOR2 – 2
1 Oct 2023YOR — CHI0 – 1
30 Apr 2023CHI — YOR1 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

i