GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · — · 23:30
versus

New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire

Sports Illustrated Stadium
0 – 1
81:00
66%
Both teams to score
YO44
Draw23
CH33
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,66Raw implied probability37,6%Sum of the 1X2 book105,6%Operator margin removed−5,6 ptsDe-margined consensus36%Our model43.8%Measured gap+7.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 2.0 goals—27.5%41%−13.5
Away under 2.0 goals—72.3%59%+13.3
Away over 1.0 goals—68.6%79%−10.4
Away under 1.0 goals—31.4%21%+10.4
Home draw no bet—56.9%47%+9.9
Away draw no bet—43.1%53%−9.9
Away over 1.5 goals—46.1%56%−9.9
Away under 1.5 goals—53.9%44%+9.9
Away over 2.5 goals—20.5%30%−9.5
Away under 2.5 goals—79.5%70%+9.5
Draw or away—56.2%65%−8.8
Over 4.0 goals—30.7%39%−8.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

MLS · 01:3081'
YORYOR
CHICHI
Sports Illustrated Stadium
0 – 1
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–1, 81'
1%
YO win
13%
Draw
86%
CH win
▼-43ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.00—0.00
Away side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 3 CHIV. RadojevicCHI
  • 66'Yellow Card YORM. SofoYOR
  • 65'Substitution 1 CHIS. WilliamsCHI
  • 65'Substitution 2 CHIP. ZinckernagelCHI
  • 64'Yellow Card CHIJ. WatermanCHI
  • 57'Substitution 5 YORE. ForsbergYOR
  • 56'Substitution 4 YORD. NealisYOR
  • 46'Substitution 1 YORM. JimenezYOR
  • 46'Substitution 2 YORC. CowellYOR
  • 46'Substitution 3 YORM. Dos SantosYOR
  • 38'Normal Goal CHIM. Haile-SelassieCHI
  • 17'Yellow Card CHIL. BarrosoCHI
Model changes
  • ▼-16pp38' — CHI goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHI's control of the match.
  • •0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.852.66▼-0.19%
X4.003.85▼-0.15%
22.192.38▲+0.19%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal89.9Away under 2.0 goals72.3%59%
61
▲+13.3pp
Away under 1.0 goals1Interesting81.2Away under 1.0 goals31.4%21%
61
▲+10.4pp
Home draw no betInteresting79.7Home draw no bet56.9%47%
61
▲+9.9pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting79.7Away under 1.5 goals53.9%44%
61
▲+9.9pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting78.5Away under 2.5 goals79.5%70%
61
▲+9.5pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting74.9Under 4.0 goals69.3%61%
61
▲+8.3pp
Home win—Home win43.8%36%
61
▲+7.8pp
Draw—Draw23%25%
61
▼-2pp
Away win—Away win33.2%40%
61
▼-6.8pp
Home or draw—Home or draw66.8%60%
61
▲+6.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 38%model 44%▲+6pp
Xmarket 26%model 23%▼-3pp
2market 42%model 33%▼-9pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
72
Eligible
72
With a price
72
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.