GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Major League Soccer · · 23:30
versus

New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire

Sports Illustrated Stadium
01
81:00
66%
Both teams to score
YO44
Draw23
CH33
Why
Chicago Fire has 8 declared absences
New York Red Bulls takes 1.74 points per game at home against 0.81 away — two different sides depending on the ground
New York Red Bulls scores 1.9 goals per game at home
Chicago Fire concedes 1.8 goals per game away
What could fool us
Chicago Fire's attack sits at the 92th percentile of the league
New York Red Bulls's defence sits at the 28th percentile — among the weakest
New York Red Bulls has 4 declared absences
New York Red Bulls has lost 4 of its last 6
Chicago Fire has won 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices New York Red Bulls at 44%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

YORYOR
CHICHI
Sports Illustrated Stadium
01
81:00

Live intelligence

i81'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 0–1, 81'
1%
YO win
13%
Draw
86%
CH win
-43ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO81'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Away side ahead of its expected goals by 1.00.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 77'Substitution 3 CHIV. RadojevicCHI
  • 66'Yellow Card YORM. SofoYOR
  • 65'Substitution 1 CHIS. WilliamsCHI
  • 65'Substitution 2 CHIP. ZinckernagelCHI
  • 64'Yellow Card CHIJ. WatermanCHI
  • 57'Substitution 5 YORE. ForsbergYOR
  • 56'Substitution 4 YORD. NealisYOR
  • 46'Substitution 1 YORM. JimenezYOR
  • 46'Substitution 2 YORC. CowellYOR
  • 46'Substitution 3 YORM. Dos SantosYOR
  • 38'Normal Goal CHIM. Haile-SelassieCHI
  • 17'Yellow Card CHIL. BarrosoCHI
Model changes
  • -16pp38' — CHI goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted CHI's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

44%
YOR
23%
Draw
33%
CHI
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Chicago Fire has 8 declared absences
  • New York Red Bulls takes 1.74 points per game at home against 0.81 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • New York Red Bulls scores 1.9 goals per game at home
  • Chicago Fire concedes 1.8 goals per game away

What could mislead us

  • Chicago Fire's attack sits at the 92th percentile of the league
  • New York Red Bulls's defence sits at the 28th percentile — among the weakest
  • New York Red Bulls has 4 declared absences
  • New York Red Bulls has lost 4 of its last 6
  • Chicago Fire has won 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 2.0 goals2Strength 89.9/100
Away under 2.0 goals
Model
72.3%
Market
59%
Divergence
+13.3

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 72.3%, the market at 59%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

6 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices New York Red Bulls at 44%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions