GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Ligue 1 · · 15:30
versus

CA Bizertin
AS Marsa

Stade 15 Octobre
Pre-match analysis
72%
Under 2.5 goals
CA47
Draw28
AS25
Why
AS Marsa's defence sits at the 28th percentile — among the weakest
CA Bizertin takes 1.94 points per game at home, the opponent 0.71 away
CA Bizertin takes 1.94 points per game at home against 0.53 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could fool us
3 draws in the last 7 meetings — a historically tight fixture
AS Marsa takes 1.47 points per game at home against 0.71 away — two different sides depending on the ground
CA Bizertin has lost 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices CA Bizertin at 47%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

CABCAB
ASMASM
Stade 15 Octobre · Pre-match analysis
72%
Under 2.5 goals
47%
CAB
28%
Draw
25%
ASM
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • AS Marsa's defence sits at the 28th percentile — among the weakest
  • CA Bizertin takes 1.94 points per game at home, the opponent 0.71 away
  • CA Bizertin takes 1.94 points per game at home against 0.53 away — two different sides depending on the ground

What could mislead us

  • 3 draws in the last 7 meetings — a historically tight fixture
  • AS Marsa takes 1.47 points per game at home against 0.71 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • CA Bizertin has lost 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

Interesting
Under 2.0 goals2Strength 75.2/100
Under 2.0 goals
Model
62.4%
Market
54%
Divergence
+8.4

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 62.4%, the market at 54%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

2 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices CA Bizertin at 47%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions