GRABBLESTATS
No signal🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 19:00
versus

Aston Villa
Arsenal

Villa Park
Pre-match analysis
52%
Under 2.5 goals
AS21
Draw27
AR52
Head to head
3
AST
1
Draw
4
ARS
déc. 2025ARS — AST4 – 1
déc. 2025AST — ARS2 – 1
janv. 2025ARS — AST2 – 2
août 2024AST — ARS0 – 2
avr. 2024ARS — AST0 – 2
déc. 2023AST — ARS1 – 0
févr. 2023AST — ARS2 – 4
août 2022ARS — AST2 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h21%—
Our past analyses in this competition
total-goals · announced at 64%0,13Confirmed
total-goals · announced at 63%0,14Confirmed
total-goals · announced at 47%0,22Refuted
total-goals · announced at 79%0,62Refuted
total-goals · announced at 71%0,50Refuted
total-goals · announced at 72%0,08Confirmed

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings
1Liverpool FC8553+30
2Arsenal FC8347+26
Premier League · 21:00
ASTAST
ARSARS
Villa Park · Pre-match analysis
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Time Machine

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What changed?

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View full timeline

Evolution over time

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AS winDrawAR win

Snapshot ledger

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SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260831_af-1557377_210805hv1.9.354%59%

What would have to change

i21.2 pt span
Red card52 → 30.9-21.1
Opponent scores first52 → 49.2-2.8
Key substitution52 → 51-1
High tempo52 → 52.1+0.1
Low tempo52 → 51.9-0.1
Early goal52 → 520

A single plausible change reverses the lean. The headline probability is more fragile than its number suggests.

Scenario library

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Head to head

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3
AS wins
1
Draws
4
AR wins
30 Dec 2025ARS — AST4 – 1
6 Dec 2025AST — ARS2 – 1
18 Jan 2025ARS — AST2 – 2
24 Aug 2024AST — ARS0 – 2
14 Apr 2024ARS — AST0 – 2
9 Dec 2023AST — ARS1 – 0
18 Feb 2023AST — ARS2 – 4
31 Aug 2022ARS — AST2 – 1

The record is counted from the point of view of today's home side, whichever ground each meeting was played on. History is context, never a causal driver.

Similar matches(past meetings, as the registry holds them)

View all

Notes

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