GRABBLESTATS
Watch🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · · 19:00
versus

Fulham
Chelsea

Craven Cottage · Referee j-brooks
Pre-match analysis
56%
Both teams to score
FU36
Draw28
CH36
Why
Chelsea has 4 declared absences
Fulham takes 1.71 points per game at home against 0.92 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Chelsea has lost 4 of its last 6
What could fool us
Fulham's defence sits at the 30th percentile — among the weakest
Fulham has 4 declared absences
Chelsea has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Fulham at 36%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

FULFUL
CHECHE
Craven Cottage · Pre-match analysis
56%
Both teams to score
36%
FUL
28%
Draw
36%
CHE
▼ −1 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Chelsea has 4 declared absences
  • Fulham takes 1.71 points per game at home against 0.92 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Chelsea has lost 4 of its last 6

What could mislead us

  • Fulham's defence sits at the 30th percentile — among the weakest
  • Fulham has 4 declared absences
  • Chelsea has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 2.0 goals2Strength 95/100
Away under 2.0 goals
Model
79%
Market
62%
Divergence
+17

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 79%, the market at 62%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
j-brooks
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 22
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Fulham at 36%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions