GRABBLESTATS
No signal🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · · 14:00
versus

Everton
Crystal Palace

Hill Dickinson Stadium · Referee p-tierney
20
Full time
62%
Under 2.5 goals
EV40
Draw31
CR29
Why
Crystal Palace's defence sits at the 30th percentile — among the weakest
Crystal Palace has lost 4 of its last 6
Everton has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could fool us
Everton has 6 declared absences
Everton has lost 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Everton at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

EVEEVE
CRYCRY
Hill Dickinson Stadium
20
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed62%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
40%
Win EVE
what happened
31%
Draw
29%
Win CRY
37%at opening40%at kick-off+3 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

  • Crystal Palace's defence sits at the 30th percentile — among the weakest
  • Crystal Palace has lost 4 of its last 6
  • Everton has won 5 of the last 8 meetings

What could mislead us

  • Everton has 6 declared absences
  • Everton has lost 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Under 3.0 goals3Strength 88.4/100
Under 3.0 goals
Model
76.8%
Market
64%
Divergence
+12.8

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 76.8%, the market at 64%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
p-tierney
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 22
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Everton at 40%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions