GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · · 18:45
versus

Estac Troyes
Paris FC

· Referee m-bollengier
00
Full time
68%
Victoire Paris FC
TR11
Draw21
PA68
Why
Estac Troyes's attack sits at the 93th percentile of the league
Estac Troyes takes 2.35 points per game at home, the opponent 1.23 away
Paris FC has 8 declared absences
Estac Troyes takes 2.35 points per game at home against 1.43 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Estac Troyes scores 2 goals per game at home
What could fool us
Estac Troyes has 4 declared absences
Paris FC has won 4 of its last 6
Paris FC has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Paris FC at 68%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

TROTRO
PARPAR
00
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted68%Paris FC win · announced before kick-off
11%
Win TRO
21%
Draw
what happened
68%
Win PAR
25%at opening11%at kick-off+16 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

  • Estac Troyes's attack sits at the 93th percentile of the league
  • Estac Troyes takes 2.35 points per game at home, the opponent 1.23 away
  • Paris FC has 8 declared absences
  • Estac Troyes takes 2.35 points per game at home against 1.43 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Estac Troyes scores 2 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • Estac Troyes has 4 declared absences
  • Paris FC has won 4 of its last 6
  • Paris FC has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away draw no betStrength 95/100
Away draw no bet
Model
85.6%
Market
58%
Divergence
+27.6

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 85.6%, the market at 58%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
m-bollengier
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 21
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Paris FC at 68%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions