GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Eredivisie · · 12:30
versus

PSV Eindhoven
Groningen

Philips Stadion · Referee a-lindhout
Pre-match analysis
77%
Over 2.5 goals
PS76
Draw15
GR9
Why
PSV Eindhoven's attack sits at the 98th percentile of the league
PSV Eindhoven takes 2.35 points per game at home, the opponent 1.13 away
Groningen has 10 declared absences
PSV Eindhoven has won 4 of its last 6
PSV Eindhoven scores 3.3 goals per game at home
PSV Eindhoven has won 7 of the last 8 meetings
What could fool us
Groningen has won 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices PSV Eindhoven at 76%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

PSVPSV
GROGRO
Philips Stadion · Pre-match analysis
77%
Over 2.5 goals
76%
PSV
15%
Draw
9%
GRO
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • PSV Eindhoven's attack sits at the 98th percentile of the league
  • PSV Eindhoven takes 2.35 points per game at home, the opponent 1.13 away
  • Groningen has 10 declared absences
  • PSV Eindhoven has won 4 of its last 6
  • PSV Eindhoven scores 3.3 goals per game at home
  • PSV Eindhoven has won 7 of the last 8 meetings

What could mislead us

  • Groningen has won 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

Interesting
Home over 2.0 goals2Strength 78.8/100
Home over 2.0 goals
Model
74.6%
Market
65%
Divergence
+9.6

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 74.6%, the market at 65%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

3 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
a-lindhout
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 19
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices PSV Eindhoven at 76%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions