GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Eredivisie · · 14:30
versus

Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar

Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Referee s-gozubuyuk
02
Full time
62%
Both teams to score
SI29
Draw27
AL44
Why
AZ Alkmaar has 8 declared absences
Fortuna Sittard takes 1.58 points per game at home against 0.87 away — two different sides depending on the ground
What could fool us
AZ Alkmaar's attack sits at the 83th percentile of the league
Fortuna Sittard's defence sits at the 21th percentile — among the weakest
Fortuna Sittard has 4 declared absences
AZ Alkmaar has won 6 of the last 8 meetings
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices AZ Alkmaar at 44%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

SITSIT
ALKALK
Fortuna Sittard Stadion
02
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted62%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
29%
Win SIT
27%
Draw
44%
Win ALK
what happened
29%at opening29%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

  • AZ Alkmaar has 8 declared absences
  • Fortuna Sittard takes 1.58 points per game at home against 0.87 away — two different sides depending on the ground

What could mislead us

  • AZ Alkmaar's attack sits at the 83th percentile of the league
  • Fortuna Sittard's defence sits at the 21th percentile — among the weakest
  • Fortuna Sittard has 4 declared absences
  • AZ Alkmaar has won 6 of the last 8 meetings
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Away under 2.0 goals2Strength 95/100
Away under 2.0 goals
Model
67.3%
Market
51%
Divergence
+16.3

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 67.3%, the market at 51%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
s-gozubuyuk
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 19
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices AZ Alkmaar at 44%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions