GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇮🇹 Serie A · · 16:30
versus

Venezia
Lecce

Stadio Pierluigi Penzo · Referee a-rapuano
Pre-match analysis
73%
Under 2.5 goals
VE36
Draw33
LE31
Why
Venezia's attack sits at the 94th percentile of the league
Lecce's defence sits at the 35th percentile — among the weakest
Venezia takes 2.32 points per game at home, the opponent 0.92 away
Lecce has 4 declared absences
Venezia takes 2.32 points per game at home against 1.44 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Venezia has won 4 of its last 6
Venezia scores 2 goals per game at home
What could fool us
Venezia has 4 declared absences
4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Venezia at 36%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

VENVEN
LECLEC
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo · Pre-match analysis
73%
Under 2.5 goals
36%
VEN
33%
Draw
31%
LEC
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Venezia's attack sits at the 94th percentile of the league
  • Lecce's defence sits at the 35th percentile — among the weakest
  • Venezia takes 2.32 points per game at home, the opponent 0.92 away
  • Lecce has 4 declared absences
  • Venezia takes 2.32 points per game at home against 1.44 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Venezia has won 4 of its last 6
  • Venezia scores 2 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • Venezia has 4 declared absences
  • 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Home under 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Home under 1.0 goals
Model
61.1%
Market
40%
Divergence
+21.1

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 61.1%, the market at 40%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
a-rapuano
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 21
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Venezia at 36%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions