GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇮🇹 Serie A · · 18:45
versus

Parma
Cagliari

Stadio Ennio Tardini · Referee d-perenzoni
01
Full time
68%
Under 2.5 goals
PA34
Draw31
CA35
Why
Cagliari's defence sits at the 22th percentile — among the weakest
Cagliari has 8 declared absences
What could fool us
Parma has 10 declared absences
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Cagliari at 35%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

PARPAR
CAGCAG
Stadio Ennio Tardini
01
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed68%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
34%
Win PAR
31%
Draw
35%
Win CAG
what happened
34%at opening34%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

  • Cagliari's defence sits at the 22th percentile — among the weakest
  • Cagliari has 8 declared absences

What could mislead us

  • Parma has 10 declared absences
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

Interesting
Home under 1.0 goals1Strength 84.2/100
Home under 1.0 goals
Model
58.4%
Market
47%
Divergence
+11.4

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 58.4%, the market at 47%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

3 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
d-perenzoni
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 21
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Cagliari at 35%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions