GRABBLESTATS
Watch🇸🇪 Allsvenskan · · 12:00
versus

Vasteras SK FK
Kalmar FF

Hitachi Energy Arena · Referee g-nyberg
Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals
VA35
Draw30
KA35
Why
Kalmar FF's defence sits at the 34th percentile — among the weakest
Vasteras SK FK takes 1.5 points per game at home, the opponent 0.13 away
Kalmar FF has 4 declared absences
Vasteras SK FK scores 1.9 goals per game at home
Kalmar FF concedes 2.1 goals per game away
Vasteras SK FK has won 3 of the last 5 meetings
What could fool us
Vasteras SK FK's defence sits at the 13th percentile — among the weakest
Vasteras SK FK has 8 declared absences
Kalmar FF takes 1.89 points per game at home against 0.13 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Vasteras SK FK at 35%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

VASVAS
KALKAL
Hitachi Energy Arena · Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals
35%
VAS
30%
Draw
35%
KAL
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Kalmar FF's defence sits at the 34th percentile — among the weakest
  • Vasteras SK FK takes 1.5 points per game at home, the opponent 0.13 away
  • Kalmar FF has 4 declared absences
  • Vasteras SK FK scores 1.9 goals per game at home
  • Kalmar FF concedes 2.1 goals per game away
  • Vasteras SK FK has won 3 of the last 5 meetings

What could mislead us

  • Vasteras SK FK's defence sits at the 13th percentile — among the weakest
  • Vasteras SK FK has 8 declared absences
  • Kalmar FF takes 1.89 points per game at home against 0.13 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Under 3.0 goals3Strength 95/100
Under 3.0 goals
Model
74.2%
Market
58%
Divergence
+16.2

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 74.2%, the market at 58%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Referee
g-nyberg
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Vasteras SK FK at 35%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions