GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Serie A · · 21:30
versus

Mirassol
Palmeiras

Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals
MI44
Draw26
PA30
Why
Mirassol's attack sits at the 85th percentile of the league
Mirassol takes 1.97 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
Mirassol scores 1.9 goals per game at home
What could fool us
Palmeiras's attack sits at the 94th percentile of the league
Palmeiras has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Mirassol at 44%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

MIRMIR
PALPAL
· Pre-match analysis
53%
Under 2.5 goals
44%
MIR
26%
Draw
30%
PAL
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Mirassol's attack sits at the 85th percentile of the league
  • Mirassol takes 1.97 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • Mirassol scores 1.9 goals per game at home

What could mislead us

  • Palmeiras's attack sits at the 94th percentile of the league
  • Palmeiras has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

High Signal
Home over 1.0 goals1Strength 95/100
Home over 1.0 goals
Model
63.5%
Market
38%
Divergence
+25.5

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 63.5%, the market at 38%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 20
#TeamPGDFormPts
1PALPalmeiras20+20
WWDWW
48
3FLAFlamengo20+13
WDWLW
45

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Mirassol at 44%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions